As Juan Soto embarks on $765M future, Ted Williams' shadow lingers: Where could he end up?

DALLAS — So possibly you’re wondering this week: What would I person to do to get immoderate shot squad to salary ME $700 million?

Hey, fantabulous question. And I deliberation we’ve figured that out.

On 1 hand, you could beryllium a unicorn — a once-in-a-lifetime location tally hero/Cy Young starter/make-the-impossible-seem-possible benignant of guy. Like Shohei Ohtani, for instance. Or …

You could conscionable beryllium Ted Williams.

All right, let’s return a heavy activity now. It ever seems sacrilegious to telephone Juan Soto — aliases anyone other — a modern-day Ted Williams. But this is the communicative wherever we fto you cognize that it’s not arsenic crazy arsenic you want to judge it is.

The Mets evidently deliberation so, since they conscionable agreed to deposit $765 million successful Soto’s money marketplace relationship complete the adjacent 16 years. But you should cognize that they’re not the only squad that sees this Juan Soto/Ted Williams thing. Far from it.

Consider the consequence from 1 big-league coach this week erstwhile we asked for his guidance to Soto’s staggering caller contract.

“What it says to me,” he replied, laughing, “is that Ted Williams would make a hellhole of a batch of money if he was playing today.”

True!

Then there’s this story, told by an executive of a squad that had liking successful trading for Soto successful 2022, erstwhile the Nationals were dangling him. Just to make judge he had the go-ahead, this exec and different high-ranking personnel of his beforehand agency decided they’d amended tally it past their proprietor first. This is really the exec remembers the speech going:

“He (the owner) said thing like: ‘I understand he’s great. But tin you put successful discourse really awesome he is?’

“And I said: ‘I deliberation he’s Ted Williams.’

“And he conscionable gave maine a look like: ‘You’re a freaking lunatic.’ But I conscionable said, ‘No, that’s benignant of what he is.’”

We couldn’t person said it immoderate better. That’s benignant of what he is. He’s not Ted Williams 2.0 because cipher is. That isn’t possible. Williams vanished his profession pinch a 1.116 OPS and a .344 profession batting average. Nobody is doing that successful this era. Nobody.

But is Juan Soto kind of the 21st-century type of Ted Williams? There’s nary getting astir that.

If the mobility is much for illustration — What hitter successful the history of shot is the astir comparable to Soto done property 25? — location is only 1 answer. And you guessed it, Ted Williams is that answer.

Let’s show you why. It starts pinch …

On-base IQ astatine a young age

In the history of this sport, only 2 hitters person ever had a locomotion complaint supra 18 percent done their age-25 seasons (with astatine slightest 2,500 sheet appearances). Guess who?

Ted Williams — 18.9 percent
Juan Soto — 18.8 percent

(Source: Baseball Reference)

Or we could look astatine the afloat array of on-base skills. To do that, let’s usage a metric from Baseball Reference called OBP+ — which takes on-base percent and adjusts it to the discourse of a player’s hitting situation successful his era. Here’s that leaderboard done property 25:

Ted Williams — 137
Juan Soto — 131

In different words, the only 2 young hitters who were on-base machines astatine a complaint that was astatine slightest 30 percent amended than convention mean were … Williams and Soto. (Next connected that list: Ty Cobb and Shoeless Joe Jackson, tied astatine 129.)

Or we could conscionable see the early-career narratives of these 2 guys — minus the portion wherever Williams went disconnected to warfare astatine property 24 and became a war-hero combatant pilot.

Before he turned 26, Williams led his convention successful walks doubly and OBP 3 times, contempt missing 2 seasons during that span successful the service. Since then, only 1 left-handed hitter has led his convention successful some of those departments astatine slightest doubly by property 25. Hmmm, who mightiness that be?

Juan Soto would beryllium a awesome guess.

There’s more, of course. But what do you think? Are we authorized to spell on? Do we astatine slightest person the go-ahead to mention Soto and Williams successful the aforesaid breath? We asked Diamondbacks head Torey Lovullo for support to do truthful this week, since he’s a history person and erstwhile coached successful Boston. In retrospect, he mightiness not person been the correct choice.

“I mean, Ted Williams?” Lovullo said. “My dada taught maine everything astir Ted Williams. That’s a reliable 1 for me. He’s astir apt the top hitter of each time.”

So Lovullo wasn’t fresh to use that Ted Williams stamp of approval. But erstwhile he sewage that retired of the way, Lovullo began coating the image of what he does see successful Soto, from the position of a head who has been trying to fig retired really to incorporate him since Soto arrived successful the large leagues.

“The first clip I saw him, he was 20 years old,” Lovullo said. “I could not judge he was 20 years old. He carried himself for illustration he was 30, for illustration he had been astir the convention for a agelong time.”

And Lovullo intends that successful a measurement that explains why the free-agent bidding for Soto reached different orbit this winter.

“I deliberation Soto is connected a different level than the remainder of the convention astatine times,” he said. “I mean, 41 location runs, the OPS, the numbers that he has, are not lucky. It’s because he has an unthinkable expertise to effect the baseball, and he understands what each at-bat is asking for.”

He understands what each at-bat is asking for.

With those words, Lovullo is telling america this is not a hitter who is prepared for each at-bat successful the consciousness that he knows the pitcher has a fastball, sweeper and cutter successful his arsenal. This is simply a hitter who prepares connected “a different level.”

Kind of for illustration a modern-day Ted Williams. That, you see, is because they some had the unsocial expertise to spot …

The hidden portion of the game

Davey Martinez was the first head of Juan Soto’s big-league life, for 5 spectacular seasons successful Washington. Now that Soto is backmost successful the NL East, Martinez will get to negociate against him successful 4 bid a year. He’s not looking guardant to that portion — but he ne'er gets tired of watching Juan Soto, bat artist.

“Like I’ve ever said,” Martinez told us, “this guy, for arsenic young arsenic he is — and he’s still young — he understands the hidden portion of the crippled amended than anybody I know. He really does.”

Again, we extremity to constituent retired the terminology these managers usage to picture a feline who 2 months agone turned 26 — meaning he’s younger than the likes of Josh Jung aliases Spencer Horwitz aliases Josh Lowe. It’s not: He understands the onslaught zone. It’s: He understands the hidden portion of the game.

And by that, Martinez said, he means: “He has a scheme each pitch. Not conscionable each at-bat but each pitch. He has a scheme of what he wants to do, and you tin spot it.”

Rockies head Bud Black tin besides spot it. And he, too, described The Juan Soto At-Bat successful ways that are ne'er utilized to picture anyone else’s at-bats.

“When you usage the words, sheet discipline, that encompasses a batch of things,” Black said. “But for me, it’s really he conducts the at-bat, wherever it’s patience, but yet, you consciousness that he’s fresh to hit. It’s benignant of an instinctual thing. It’s an intangible that I deliberation pitchers feel, and catchers feel. And the opposing manager. And the opposing pitching coach.

“There’s conscionable thing astir the at-bat erstwhile it’s him up there. It doesn’t matter, it’s the same, whether it’s 7:05 (p.m.), hitting successful the first inning, aliases astatine 9:30, hitting successful the ninth. There’s not a quality successful the value of the at-bat.”

Like Lovullo and Martinez, Black is describing a hitter whose level of attraction — connected each transportation of each at-bat, of each inning, of each game, of each play — is conscionable different. So what happens erstwhile the eye, the brain, the plan, the attraction and the bonzer bat-to-ball skills look to beryllium ever moving successful sync?

You get Juan Soto … aliases Ted Williams.

Consider these quotes. They travel from the Splendid Splinter. They could easy beryllium his reappraisal of Juan Soto.

“Baseball is 50 percent from the cervix up.”

“Think. Don’t conscionable swing. Think astir the pitcher — what he threw you past clip up, his champion pitch, who’s up next. Think.”

Sound familiar? If you’ve paid immoderate attraction erstwhile Soto is moving his batter’s-box magic, it’s almost arsenic if he’s a hitting robot, programmed by Ted Williams himself.

Said Martinez: “I show our pitchers each the time: When you’re facing him, you request to cognize he’s smart. He knows what he wants to do. So if he takes a fastball, he’s looking for something. Don’t deliberation you’re going to sneak thing by him, because he’s smart. So you’ve sewage to beryllium smart.”

But really, there’s much — because the Soto/Williams comparisons don’t extremity pinch this singular operation of patience, prep and focus. There’s besides …

The powerfulness play

John Schneider besides dreamed the Juan Soto dream. He is the head of the Blue Jays, a squad that pursued Soto each the measurement to the decorativeness line. He had nary problem explaining precisely what they hoped they’d beryllium buying.

“He’s a unsocial blend of sheet subject and power,” Schneider said. “I mean, you do not for illustration facing it erstwhile you’re an opposing team.”

Plate discipline and power. When you harvester them, and past use them to each the young hitters successful history, it erstwhile again connects the aforesaid 2 names: Ted Williams and Juan Soto.

Walk percent and location tally percent done property 25

(Source: Baseball Reference; minimum 2,500 sheet appearances)

So location it is. There is patience. There is power. There is focus. There is damage. And location is 1 much thing.

The flair

It’s nary concealed that Ted Williams did everything — connected the field, disconnected the section — pinch an attitude. But Juan Soto has much than conscionable an attitude. He has The Shuffle.

.@JuanSoto25_ does the shuffle to pump himself up. Looks for illustration it works.

📰: https://t.co/c2QKA4hpjl pic.twitter.com/8HJvoTO3ZZ

— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2021

Don’t consciousness arsenic if you person to return a four-minute break from this portion to watch the full, epic Soto at-bat against Hunter Gaddis successful Cleveland this October. But if you do, you’ll spot thing that makes up the afloat Juan Soto Experience.

The full Juan Soto at-bat vs. Hunter Gaddis. An creator astatine work. Just fouling disconnected pitches until he sewage a fastball.

Then he sent the Yankees to the World Series. pic.twitter.com/2C6lSIpD45

— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) October 20, 2024

It isn’t simply that he knows what you’re trying to do to him on each pitch. He’s also going to show you astir it aft each transportation … and show it, via immoderate type of the Soto Shuffle. There is honestly thing for illustration this going connected anyplace other successful his sport.

“For me, it’s his measurement of keeping engaged,” Martinez said. “It really is. That’s really he gets backmost successful the container and gets engaged.”

And it brings Martinez backmost to his favourite Soto communicative ever. It happened successful a 2019 crippled astatine Citi Field, erstwhile Marcus Stroman, past a Met, struck retired Soto successful the first inning, past did an imitation of The Shuffle.

“So he comes backmost (to the dugout), and I said, ‘Did you spot what he conscionable did?’” Martinez reminisced. “And he said, ‘Don’t worry. I’ve sewage him.” Very adjacent at-bat. He deed 1 a mile — and he benignant of looked astatine Stroman like, ‘Don’t do that again.’”

Was location a Ted Williams Shuffle? Not that we cognize of. But location was a Ted Williams edge. And it is an unmistakable portion of the Soto-Williams connection. Don’t return our connection for it. Take the connection of Charlie Manuel, erstwhile head of the Phillies and a feline who played against Ted Williams early successful his career.

“He’s benignant of a flamboyant player,” Manuel said of Soto successful 2021. “He’s very interesting. He calls attraction to you pinch his talent. … At the aforesaid time, he’s cocky. But to me, it comes successful a bully way. You know, Ted Williams was very cocky, too.”

But you cognize what other Ted Williams was? A feline who played successful the large leagues until he was 41. So it’s worthy asking:

Where does Juan Soto spell from here? 

Since he’s now nether contract until the twelvemonth 2040, it’s worthy asking: Do hitters pinch Juan Soto’s accomplishment group tend to property well?

“Oh yeah, I deliberation so,” Schneider said. “You’re only arsenic bully arsenic what you plaything at, right? And he’s beautiful darned bully astatine that.”

The truth is, history shows america he’s right. As acold backmost arsenic 2012, Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs studied this very concept. They recovered thing we should return statement of — that almost nary accomplishment has tended to property amended done the years than plate discipline.

Guess who looms arsenic the eventual illustration of that? Right you are. Ted Williams.

Even though he near shot to caput disconnected to warfare 2 times, Williams returned — first astatine property 27, past astatine property 34 — arsenic astir precisely the aforesaid hitter he was before.

Take a look astatine his locomotion and location tally rates done the years — since those are the rates that astir lucifer the floor plan of the young Juan Soto — and ponder whether they laic retired a blueprint for what Soto mightiness become.

(Source: Baseball Reference)

You’ll announcement that Williams played until precisely the aforesaid property arsenic erstwhile Soto’s Mets statement expires — astatine 41. If Soto ages pinch moreover remotely akin rates … um, wow.

After his age-25 season, Williams added 394 location runs and 1,526 walks. If Soto ages for illustration Williams, he’ll beryllium location successful the vicinity of 600 profession homers and 2,300 profession walks by the twelvemonth 2040. And really galore players successful history person ever reached those 2 plateaus? Just one.

Barry Bonds.

So is that what’s retired location for Soto pinch the Mets? Sorry. We forgot to battalion our crystal balls for the Winter Meetings. But pinch a hitter this talented — and this different — tin we norm thing out?

“I don’t cognize what he’s going to do erstwhile he’s 40,” said Martinez. “But I cognize what he’s going to do travel Opening Day.”

Hey, don’t we all. Power. Patience. And $765 cardinal worthy of Soto Shuffles — and the champion Ted Williams imitation connected Earth.

(Top image: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Williams swinging: Diamond Images / Getty Images; Williams close-up: Getty Images; Soto close-up: Kyle Rivas / Getty Images; Soto swinging: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)