Brewers might have slight edge in Devin Williams/Nestor Cortes swap with Yankees: Law

Trade details: New York Yankees get RHP Devin Williams for LHP Nestor Cortes and IF Caleb Durbin

I speculated the different time that the New York Yankees mightiness waste and acquisition Nestor Cortes, though I thought they mightiness usage him to get a bat, not a reliever. Instead they packaged him and a fringe imaginable for Milwaukee Brewers person Devin Williams, a switch of 2 guys entering their last seasons earlier free agency. Williams takes complete Clay Holmes’ spot successful the bullpen, but if Cortes is patient again he’s astir apt going to supply much full worth to the Brewers because of his role.

Cortes’ Yankees tenure ended connected a sour note, arsenic he gave up the expansive slam to Freddie Freeman that won Game 1 of the World Series for the Dodgers successful what turned retired to beryllium Cortes’ penultimate quality successful pinstripes. He hadn’t sounded successful 5 weeks, however, owed to a flexor strain that ended his regular play connected Sept. 18; that’s an elbow wounded that tin beryllium a precursor to a torn UCL, the wounded that typically requires Tommy John surgery.

Before the injury, Cortes had different softly beardown play arsenic a Yankees starter, 2.6 bWAR/3.1 fWAR, his 2nd specified twelvemonth successful the past 3 wherever he was worthy astatine slightest 2.5 WAR successful some WAR systems and threw astatine slightest 150 innings. In between, he only made 12 starts and threw 63 1/3 innings successful 2023 owed to a hamstring strain and 2 IL stints for rotator cuff strains, truthful the Brewers acquired a perchance above-average starter whose projection is volatile because he’s been wounded truthful much, including some his elbow and shoulder, successful the past 24 months.

Cortes useful chiefly pinch a fastball and cutter, throwing those 2 astir 70 percent of the time, pinch the four-seamer playing up because it has positive vertical break and hitters person to expect some that transportation and the cutter, which tin beryllium almost sliderish pinch its tilt and full break. The Cuban lefty dominates same-side hitters and is effective capable against righties to start, though they deed him for a batch of power. In his 2 patient seasons of 2022 and 2024, he’s fixed up 40 homers, and 37 came via right-handed hitters, pinch righties hitting him harder wide (.256/.301/.459) this past season.

The Brewers already person Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff (coming disconnected enarthrosis surgery) and Tobias Myers successful their rotation. I would return a patient Cortes complete Myers, and Woodruff is simply a immense chaotic paper aft missing each of 2024, but sloppy of really you statement them up Cortes could easy beryllium worthy 2-3 wins for the Brewers if he makes 28 starts again.

Williams isn’t precisely the image of health, either, arsenic he missed half of 2024 pinch accent fractures (plural!) successful his precocious backmost and came backmost a somewhat different pitcher.

Pre-2024, Williams was wildly successful because of his “airbender” changeup and immense hold of 7.6-7.7 feet toward the plate. After his return from the backmost wounded past year, that hold dropped to 7.3 feet, still successful the apical 10 percent of each MLB pitchers but backmost to wherever he was mechanically successful 2020-21. His changeup was still devastating, pinch moreover much tumble successful 2024 than successful the erstwhile 2 years, balancing retired immoderate of the mislaid deception from the reduced hold complete his beforehand side.

Because his out-pitch is simply a changeup, he’s shown very small platoon divided successful his career, holding left-handed batters to a .168/.293/.268 line. A afloat play of Williams would person been amended than immoderate Yankees reliever’s play successful 2024, and whether he throws the ninth inning aliases useful successful higher-leverage spots earlier successful games, he does make them better.

The Yankees talked up Caleb Durbin aft he had a bully AFL performance, pinch Aaron Boone pretending Durbin mightiness beryllium their 2nd baseman to commencement the year, but this waste and acquisition shows that was each a smokescreen. Durbin tin run, and he tin put the shot successful play, but he has adjacent to nary power. His mean exit velocity successful Triple A was 83 mph, his Barrel complaint was conscionable 3 percent, and his EV50 (the mean exit velocity of the apical 50 percent of his batted balls) was 92.3, which would person classed past successful the fields by almost 2 mph.

Durbin is 5-foot-6 and already maxed out, truthful I’m skeptical that he tin adhd immoderate spot to amended his interaction quality. He’s played each 3 accomplishment positions connected the infield and dabbled a small successful near and center, but doesn’t person the limb for shortstop aliases third. He mightiness beryllium a bully past feline connected the chair because he has immoderate velocity and puts the shot successful play astatine specified a precocious complaint (his strikeout complaint successful Triple A past twelvemonth was conscionable 9.9 percent), but I don’t spot thing more.

(Top photograph of Nestor Cortes: Luke Hales / Getty Images)

Keith Law is simply a elder shot writer for The Athletic. He has covered the athletics since 2006 and anterior to that was a typical adjunct to the wide head for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the writer of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), some from William Morrow. He's connected Instagram/Threads astatine @mrkeithlaw and Bluesky astatine @keithlaw.bsky.social. Follow Keith connected Twitter @keithlaw