Christian Walker, Max Kepler should bring good value to their new teams: Law

Two much players from my top-50 free supplier ranking person recovered caller homes, pinch Christian Walker (No. 19) reportedly agreeing to a three-year, $60 cardinal woody pinch the Astros and Max Kepler (No. 25) joining the Phillies connected a one-year statement worthy $10 million. A look astatine some signings below:

Christian Walker is connected the older broadside but should person bully years near successful him

The Astros proceed to remake their roster, taking immoderate of the money they saved by trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs to reside their first-base void by signing the champion free supplier astatine the position successful Walker. He is an outstanding defender pinch an above-average violative profile. It’s a wholly different communicative than the past clip they tried to motion a first baseman successful his mid-30s to a three-year contract; erstwhile they did it pinch José Abreu, they ignored each of the signs that he was aging, while Walker looks for illustration he’s astatine slightest sewage a bully 2 years near successful him earlier Father Time has his say.

Walker has been highly accordant since he became a full-time subordinate successful 2019, pinch wRC+ figures from 119 to 122 successful the past 3 years, and betwixt 110 and 122 successful 5 of the past six years, only falling short successful 2021 erstwhile he deed the injured database doubly pinch oblique injuries. He’s been worthy 3.0 fWAR, 3.9 fWAR, and 3.9 fWAR complete the past 3 years, from 2024 backward, and if he delivers the Astros different 3-WAR play this twelvemonth and possibly 4-5 much complete the past 2 years of the deal, they’ll apt see it a bully woody for them.

He’s an evident upgrade for them astatine first base, wherever they sewage a .226/.291/.360 statement past year, mostly from Abreu and Jon Singleton, and ended up pinch little than replacement-level worth from the position. If Walker still has 1 much 2022-ish play successful him, they’d beryllium much than 4 wins amended disconnected than past year.

The downside pinch Walker is his property — he’ll beryllium 34 successful 2025, and that’s successful the scope erstwhile galore hitters spot their bat velocity decline. The Astros saw it pinch Abreu, and they whitethorn beryllium fearing it pinch Alex Bregman, who is only 31 but saw his capacity against four-seamers crater successful 2024. Walker’s highest twelvemonth successful 2022 saw him whiff conscionable 7.4 percent of the clip he faced a transportation 95 mph aliases harder, but pinch the objection of that play he’s been successful the 12-15 percent, landing location again successful 2024 astatine 13.7 percent.

Walker doesn’t look for illustration he’s mislaid bat speed, and thing successful the information says he has, truthful I’m overmuch much bullish connected this signing than I was connected the Abreu deal, moreover though some players were successful their mid-30s astatine the clip they inked their contracts. The extremity tin travel quickly for hitters, of course, truthful there’s a non-zero chance Walker shows up 1 February successful the adjacent 3 years and his bat velocity is conscionable gone, making him possibly a 1-WAR subordinate acknowledgment to his defense and patience, which evidently would not beryllium specified awesome worth for a $20MM AAV. I’m consenting to stake that that doesn’t hap until the past twelvemonth of the contract, if astatine all, and to work together pinch the Astros that they tin astir apt get 7-8 wins retired of him complete the magnitude of the contract.

The Yankees and Mariners are some still successful the marketplace for a first baseman, and some had astatine slightest reportedly had liking successful Walker. The Yankees astir apt should person matched this price, though they whitethorn person been unwilling to salary it and springiness up the draught picks required to motion Walker. (Houston will springiness up their 2nd and 5th picks, wherever they land, hurting a workplace strategy that’s already down, but they are perfectly successful win-now mode and I work together pinch their determination to surrender those selections.)

For immoderate squad looking for a definite regular astatine first, it’s benignant of Pete Alonso aliases bust astatine this point, and he’d beryllium a decent fresh for the Yankees arsenic he’s a right-handed hitter who’d thief equilibrium their lineup out, but he besides rejected a qualifying connection and would require the Yankees to springiness up draught picks to motion him. Of course, they conscionable traded for Cody Bellinger, and could play him astatine first guidelines alternatively than signing aliases trading for personification else.

The Mariners, meanwhile, don’t person a existent incumbent astatine first, aft giving astir half of the at-bats location past twelvemonth to Ty France (-0.2 bWAR) and splitting the remainder among now-free supplier Justin Turner and platoon slugger Luke Raley, who doesn’t deed lefties astatine each but slugged astir .500 disconnected RHP. They could motion Alonso arsenic Raley’s platoon mate … no, I’m conscionable kidding.

Either of those teams could besides look to the waste and acquisition market, wherever Cleveland has apparently been dangling the anticipation of moving Josh Naylor, who collapsed retired successful 2023 and carried astir of that into 2024 different than a flukishly debased BABIP. He’s deed .272/.335/.471 complete the past 2 seasons and his accumulation has been worthy a full of 4.0 bWAR/5.0 fWAR complete that span, pinch the erstwhile number astir apt excessively debased because of an atrocious protect people connected him from 2024. (He was astatine 0 OAA, aliases perfectly average; I would expect him to travel successful somewhat beneath average, but I don’t deliberation he’s unplayable arsenic his Baseball-Reference dWAR indicates.)

Naylor is left-handed, but has shown conscionable a humble platoon divided complete the past 2 years, truthful he’s a fresh for some teams, moreover the left-leaning Yankees. He’s heading into his last twelvemonth of arbitration earlier free agency, making him a rental for whoever acquires him, which should support the value successful prospects somewhat debased — he’s not arsenic valuable arsenic Kyle Tucker, for example, and Tucker was conscionable traded for 1 elite imaginable and 2 awesome leaguers who are nary amended than mean for their comparative positions. He’d beryllium a humble upgrade for the Mariners, and a somewhat larger 1 for the Yankees. I could spot Naylor and Alonso producing akin worth successful 2025, truthful it would beryllium a matter of whether a squad would want to waste and acquisition prospects to get a rental subordinate aliases conscionable walk money connected a longer-term deal.

Phillies return a coagulated consequence connected bounce-back campaigner Max Kepler

The Phillies signed 1 of the amended bounce-back candidates connected this winter’s free-agent marketplace successful Kepler. I for illustration the subordinate and the stake that his accumulation will beryllium worthy rather a spot much than that $10 cardinal salary. I’m a small tense astir really good he fits a Phillies lineup wherever truthful overmuch of their discourtesy is already coming from the near side.

Kepler’s 2023 play was worthy almost 3 wins, but he wounded his knee and spent 2 stints connected the injured database successful 2024, ne'er hitting anyplace adjacent his established levels this past season. He made overmuch weaker contact, and couldn’t move connected bully velocity astatine all.

The champion German-born subordinate successful MLB history, Kepler is still conscionable 31 and should person a fewer much productive years near moreover if he hits his diminution shape a small early. Given that he’s still a positive defender I don’t deliberation his assemblage has slowed down astatine each — I construe the driblet successful his violative numbers arsenic a consequence of the knee problems, mostly if not entirely. If he’s a two-win player, the Phillies sewage a bully deal.

The Phillies lineup already gets overmuch much accumulation from the near broadside than from the right. Their left-handed batters deed .270/.342/.441 past year, amended than their right-handed batters (.251/.318/.417). Their 2 champion hitters are some left-handed and if Kepler and Brandon Marsh are successful near and center, respectively, that’s astir apt 5 left-handed regulars successful the lineup.

Marsh has played immoderate halfway for Philly, grading retired astatine plus-3 OAA successful complete 1,100 innings location the past 2 years, and if Kepler is efficaciously replacing Johan Rojas, an elite defender who does zero harm astatine the plate, that’s astir apt a nett triumph for the team. Maybe they won’t really beryllium “too left-handed” fixed the existent players involved, arsenic Kepler, Bryce Harper, and Bryson Stott each show very flimsy platoon splits, but it’s astatine slightest different to tilt your lineup that acold to the near side.

Either way, I deliberation Kepler will massively outproduce his salary, truthful I for illustration the move for the Phillies moreover pinch that 1 quibble astir their lineup.

(Top photograph of Walker: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

Keith Law is simply a elder shot writer for The Athletic. He has covered the athletics since 2006 and anterior to that was a typical adjunct to the wide head for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the writer of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), some from William Morrow. He's connected Instagram/Threads astatine @mrkeithlaw and Bluesky astatine @keithlaw.bsky.social. Follow Keith connected Twitter @keithlaw