Fantasy baseball fallout: Juan Soto, Mets dominate MLB's Winter Meetings

The stove was warming up, and by the clip MLB unit reached the Winter Meetings, it was officially basking — the stove, that is. It is December, aft all.

The woody we each were waiting for happened successful the early hours of December 9: Alex Cobb signed pinch the Detroit Tigers. Oh, did you deliberation I meant Juan Soto?

Fine. Let’s talk astir Soto.

Of course, Soto was the astir prized free agent, and his “sell me” circuit took spot up of the Winter Meetings. The 5 teams yet successful play were the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets.

Soto is staying successful New York but is changing boroughs aft signing a 15-year woody pinch the Mets.

He’s not the only subordinate changing uniforms connected Opening Day adjacent year. Let’s look astatine the movers and shakers — from the Winter Meetings and soon earlier — and what their caller homes mean for their imagination outlook.

I’m not going to talk the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, but The Athletic’s Keith Law has you covered.

The superstars

Juan Soto (OF – NYM)

The Yankees seemed for illustration the dream destination for Soto connected insubstantial erstwhile he was traded location from the San Diego Padres past offseason. That is, if Soto could pat into his powerfulness and return advantage of the short structure successful New York. He did that and more, hitting 41 homers for the Yankees.

The location ballpark shifting from the Bronx to Queens could beryllium considered a downgrade for some, but astatine Citi Field, Soto has a 1.175 OPS pinch 12 location runs successful 117 at-bats. He besides had awesome results erstwhile playing successful Washington and San Diego, truthful location ballparks don’t matter arsenic overmuch to a subordinate of his caliber.

Our friends astatine FTN person released their projections, and here’s really Soto will do pinch the Mets compared to the Yankees.

FTN’s 2025 Juan Soto projection if he stayed successful the Bronx

45 HR
101 RBI
.434 wOBA
.297 BA
.419 OBP
115 Runs
165 Hits

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— MLBdream (@mlbdream.bsky.social) December 10, 2024 astatine 1:20 PM

There’s a minimal — astatine astir — difference

One schoolhouse of thought fades large free agents who motion pinch a caller team, arsenic the presumption is that they’ll consciousness the unit and press. While yes, Soto is connected a caller team, it’s his 4th squad successful his career.

Don’t overthink it pinch Soto. He is simply a top-2 prime successful points leagues and a sure-fire first-round prime successful category-based leagues — moreover if the steals aren’t there.

Blake Snell (SP – LAD)

Imagine if first-half Blake Snell showed up successful the 2nd half of the play past year. We’d beryllium having a different conversation. Snell struggled mightily successful the first half of 2024, but he didn’t motion pinch the San Francisco Giants until precocious March. After the All-Star break, Snell was a monster, posting a 1.45 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.

He now joins the Dodgers, which is simply a reminder that this station never, ever gets old.

Thanks to @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, here’s the original! x.com/RotoPat/stat…

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— 29 Sunset (@29sunset.com) October 10, 2024 astatine 10:15 AM

And it’s existent again this year. The Dodgers are looking to repeat, and Snell will thief them do that pinch the apt nonaccomplishment of Walker Buehler and shell-of-himself Clayton Kershaw.

Snell’s up-and-down play shouldn’t beryllium a surprise, arsenic it’s a microcosm of his career.

The Dodgers’ attack to their rotation, assuming everyone stays healthy, will beryllium interesting. We could spot a six-man rotation arsenic LA looks to support wellness for the playoffs.

If the Dodgers usage that attack and Snell uses his improved fastball — .194 xBA and 24.4 Whiff% successful 2024 — and lights-out curve astatine the rates he utilized them (46.4 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively) previously, past he’s apt to beryllium backmost successful the Cy Young hunt.

Garrett Crochet (SP – BOS)

OK, fine. I’ll beryllium the 1 to opportunity it. I’m fading Crochet this imagination season.

It’s not that he’s not “a dude.” A batch has maine hesitant to bargain into him arsenic my SP1 and a top-10 starter for fantasy. And if you’re taking him, that’s what it will costs you.

Let america first look astatine the landing spot. He gets retired of Chicago, which is simply a immense triumph for anyone. The move to Boston should thief pinch wins, arsenic unpredictable arsenic those are, and he was successful the 98th percentile successful K% and 93rd percentile successful Chase% and Whiff%.

What’s not to love, then?

Well, the AL East. The AL Central has immoderate reasonable pitcher-friendly confines and little violative powerfulness than the AL East. He’s a fastball-heavy (53%) lefty pitching successful Fenway pinch the Green Monster successful near field. What’s more, he now has to not only look the teams successful the AL East much often, but he has to transportation successful Baltimore pinch a shorter near field, New York pinch their little-league field, and Tampa, successful a smaller ballpark owed to harm to Tropicana Field.

OK, but we dream he will make 32 to 34 starts, not each of which will beryllium against these teams.

That’s fair! What’s besides adjacent is questioning the workload. Last twelvemonth was his first twelvemonth arsenic a starter, throwing 146 innings (after throwing 24 innings successful 2023). And while the White Sox did trim his workload down the stretch, he threw a full of 17.1 innings crossed 5 starts successful September, and location was nary existent logic to person him propulsion immoderate innings then.

His upside is adjacent that of Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Jacob deGrom, and he apt achieves it. But there’s a decent chance he doesn’t, truthful I’ll fto personification other return a changeable connected Crochet successful Boston.

Fantasy risers

Tyler O’Neill (OF – BAL)

Last twelvemonth was conscionable the 2nd clip O’Neill recorded much than 450 sheet appearances successful a play and the 2nd clip he’s deed much than 15 location runs successful a season.

Coincidence? I deliberation not.

The 2024 run was pivotal for O’Neill to unrecorded up to the hype. He did that successful Boston, hitting 31 location runs and compiling a career-high .336 OBP. Now, he’s heading to the Baltimore Orioles, and while I’m little excited than I was a twelvemonth agone pinch this landing spot, Baltimore is moving successful the left-field obstruction aft an absorbing experiment, which should thief O’Neill — wellness permitting — scope the 30-homer plateau again.

Thairo Estrada (2B – COL)

I ne'er sewage the Estrada love. I cognize I shouldn’t usage “I” truthful overmuch successful this portion and paragraph, but I want to thrust the constituent home. It’s ne'er made sense.

But now, pinch Coors Field successful play, I tin muster immoderate excitement. The exit velocity is non-existent, arsenic is the locomotion rate, but he does bring immoderate velocity to the table. And erstwhile you’re looking astatine the biggest bump successful Coors Field, there’s an accrued BABIP that players for illustration Estrada tin return advantage of pinch its large gaps successful the outfield. Estrada should play each time — aliases astatine slightest gain the opportunity to — while teasing a 15/15 play pinch a .260(ish) batting average. That’ll play arsenic a mediate infielder successful fantasy.

Michael Conforto (OF – LAD)

The Dodgers acquired different absorbing bat successful a lineup that doesn’t person overmuch punch.

Kidding. It’s absurd, moreover if the outfield configuration is … absorbing defensively.

Conforto should play, astatine worst, arsenic the beardown broadside of a platoon. He deed 20 homers past twelvemonth for the Giants — notably, 17 came connected the road. Lineup protection is mostly a myth, but it’s difficult to disregard the bump successful counting stats Conforto should get by coming to Los Angeles. He should beryllium considered a coagulated OF3 to OF4 for the upcoming play successful 15-teamers.

Alex Cobb (SP – DET)

Oh, let’s go, Alex Cobb. He only threw 16.1 innings for the Guardians past year, and injuries person been an rumor for him passim his career, but don’t hide what he did successful San Francisco successful 2022 and 2023. Cobb threw an mean of 150 innings, pinch a 22K% and a 3.80 ERA (3.94 xERA).

He’s different twelvemonth older, but he’ll participate a Tigers rotation wherever each different apt starters are 28  aliases younger.

The Tigers will request Cobb to eat innings, and admittedly, that’s scary for a feline who has struggled to enactment healthy. But throwing 135 innings now isn’t the aforesaid arsenic throwing 135 innings 5 years ago. Having players who do that is valuable.

Detroit has a freely ballpark, but Cobb is simply a splitter/sinker pitcher, truthful the main mobility will beryllium whether aliases not Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney, and Jace Jung (average property of 24) are up for the situation successful the infield.

Danny Jansen (C – TB)

The catching marketplace was bleak. Outside of Jansen, the only existent target for teams was Gary Sanchez. So yeah, the Rays nailed this signing of Jansen.

He was stuck successful Toronto, ne'er processing into the violative limb Jays fans hoped he would. Alejandro Kirk jumped him successful privilege for Toronto, and he had a cup of java successful Boston past year.

Now, playing half of his games (less because he’s a catcher) successful George M. Steinbrenner Field, Jansen could find himself hitting 15 homers pinch a .230 average.

It’s not sexy, but Jansen has go a top-20 catcher now.

Jake Burger (3B – TEX)

From Chicago to Miami and now to Texas, the power-hitting Burger has bounced astir complete the past fewer years (given his communicative of getting to the league, it’s beautiful impressive). But arsenic a trading personification successful my non-baseball life, I want Burger’s powerfulness connected my team. The Super Smash Burger giveaways, the Kendrick Lamar “MUSTAAAAAARD” nosy you could person this year. The options are endless.

His worth increases aft leaving Miami and heading to Texas. He followed up his 2023 play pinch a akin statement successful 2024, and he should proceed to beryllium a important powerfulness root for imagination managers without draining the batting average.

Texas has galore pieces, but Burger should beryllium a regular designated hitter for the Rangers and service arsenic security for Josh Jung and Nathaniel Lowe astatine the corners.

Fantasy fallers

Max Fried (SP – NYY)

The Yankees needed a large arm, and while Fried (like Soto) won’t get a free suite, that’s not a dealbreaker for him for illustration it was for Soto.

Look, Fried is an fantabulous pitcher. It’s awesome to spot him get a bag, and he bounced backmost successful a statement twelvemonth to propulsion 174.1 innings a play aft dealing pinch injuries — including a forearm scare this twelvemonth — and being constricted to 14 games.

However, location are superior concerns astir his health, which the Yankees already person successful abundance passim their rotation.

The bully news is that Fried pounds the little zone, and his 59.2 groundball complaint is successful the 96th percentile. He’s changed his offerings from 2022 to 2024 by featuring the sinker much and the slider less. In a mini ballpark, that’ll help, on pinch his sustained expertise to suppress hard-hit balls.

Still, there’s consequence here, chiefly from the wellness and ballpark perspectives, but besides because he’s a pitcher connected a caller statement successful a caller ballpark (and league). I’m fading him this year, but I’ll beryllium successful connected him — wellness permitting — successful 2026.

Willy Adames (SS – SFG)

From a real-life standpoint, you gotta emotion his landing spot. Adames will look bully successful the classical Giants uniform. But from a imagination standpoint … yikes.

We’ve seen really San Francisco suppresses violative outputs, which will wounded Adames, too. Only 15 of Adames’ 32 location runs past twelvemonth were to left-center and near field. For a righty successful San Francisco to person imagination success, you want them to beryllium pull-heavy. With the freely centerfield and breeze-generating correct field, I don’t expect the aforesaid powerfulness numbers from Adames aft leaving Milwaukee.

Matt Chapman was capable to do it past twelvemonth successful San Francisco, but moreover his 1 opposite-field location tally came connected the roadworthy successful Tampa Bay against a position player.

What’s more, Chapman consistently generates precocious exit velocity readings, coming successful astatine an mean of 93.2 mph past year, bully for the 96th percentile.

Adames is sitting correct astatine the convention mean (88.6 mph), which will termination him successful the powerfulness department.

The shortstop position is heavy capable for imagination that I’d alternatively return players for illustration Matt McLain, Bo Bichette and Anthony Volpe complete Adames this year.

Luis Severino (OAK – SP)

How breathtaking that Severino was capable to unafraid a lucrative contract. Injuries seemed for illustration they would derail his promising career, but aft past twelvemonth pinch the Mets, he positioned himself arsenic a sought-after free agent.

And he sewage a three-year statement … pinch the Oakland Athletics. Will Severino beryllium a personnel of the A’s by the extremity of his contract? Not likely. The other twelvemonth will make him a bully waste and acquisition action astatine the waste and acquisition deadline — this twelvemonth aliases next. This landing spot would person been good for imagination a twelvemonth ago, fixed the freely Oakland Coliseum. But now, starting Severino astatine location successful Sacramento will beryllium scary, fixed the dimensions and apt hitter-friendly situation there.

Severino’s imagination worth takes a large deed unless he gets dealt again.

Meh — Wait and see

Frankie Montas (SP – NYM): The Mets did a awesome occupation getting Severino and Sean Manaea backmost connected way arsenic big-league pitchers. Can Montas beryllium next? Montas tried to propulsion his cutter much past play and had a .337 xBA against it. Seeing him return to featuring the splitter arsenic a secondary offering for illustration he did successful Oakland and ditching the cutter tin thief him.

Clay Holmes (SP – NYM): The Mets apparently scheme connected utilizing Holmes arsenic a starter. I besides planned connected moving a 5K this year.

Spencer Horwitz (1B – PIT): Horwitz has a cool communicative arsenic a 27-year-old rookie past twelvemonth pinch a coagulated showing for Toronto. He was dealt to Cleveland and past Pittsburgh connected the aforesaid day. The Pirates seemed for illustration a imaginable destination for Christian Walker, but Ben Cherington and institution opted for Horwitz alternatively to “fill a need.” That request remains to beryllium seen, but Horwitz will beryllium starting, astatine least.

Luis Ortiz (SP – CLE): Heading complete to Cleveland for Horwitz was Ortiz, which was surprising, fixed he had a coagulated twelvemonth for the Pirates. He has shown an expertise to make whiffs pinch his slider, and his fastball is passable. Cleveland is simply a bully landing spot for pitchers, truthful we’ll spot really his sinker and cutter develop. For now, he’s a lottery summons successful the precocious rounds.

Andrés Giménez (2B – TOR): Who really won the Francisco Lindor trade, huh? It was the Mets. It was ever the Mets. But 1 of the players the Guardians received, Andrés Giménez, is heading to Toronto. He had a bully agelong successful 2022, hitting .297/.371/.466 pinch 17 homers and 20 steals. But extracurricular of that season, he’s a glove-first infielder who tin bargain bases.

Jordan Romano (RP – PHI): Shoutout to the 1993 World Series. Romano was calved successful April of that twelvemonth successful Canada, and aft playing his full profession pinch the Blue Jays, he now joins the Phillies, who the Blue Jays hit successful the World Series 31 years ago. Excuse maine while I contemplate everything. I retrieve watching it erstwhile I came location from school.

Anywho, location are clear wounded risks pinch Romano, which are indicated by his one-year woody pinch the Phillies. He should get the first changeable astatine closing games for Philadelphia, but Romano’s ninth-inning domiciled whitethorn beryllium short-lived if he struggles to miss bats pinch his four-seamer again.

Matthew Boyd (SP – CHC): Boyd Boys, unite! Boyd lands successful Chicago connected a two-year deal. I besides enjoyed this piece by Sara Sanchez, who compares Boyd to Drew Smyly. We conscionable want innings and wellness for Boyd to beryllium an SP5.

(Photo of Juan Soto: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)