What does history tell us about how Juan Soto will age?

DALLAS — In the unfastened abstraction of the Hilton Anatole connected Monday morning, 1 scout put it succinctly.

“Fifteen,” the scout said, “is a lot.”

Indeed, 15 years is simply a agelong clip to task the accumulation of a major-league subordinate — the longest statement successful major-league history, successful fact. So what does history show america astir really Juan Soto mightiness property complete the adjacent 15 years?

To get a consciousness of this, we looked astatine the players whose early profession accumulation aligned astir intimately pinch Soto’s done their age-25 seasons. How did those players execute complete the adjacent 5 seasons (when Soto tin trigger an opt-out successful his deal) and complete the adjacent 15?

Since integration, Soto ranks 10th successful wins supra replacement done his age-25 play (according to Baseball Reference). So our sample includes the 9 guys up of him (starting pinch Mike Trout) and the 10 guys down him (ending pinch Willie Mays).

Over the adjacent 5 seasons, done their age-30 seasons, those players averaged 32 WAR — aliases much than six wins supra replacement per season. The champion of them was Mays, who averaged a shadiness nether 9 WAR complete those 5 years; the worst was outfielder César Cedeño, who averaged 3 WAR from age-26 to age-30 and past was fundamentally done arsenic a useful major-leaguer.

Over the adjacent 15 years, the sample averaged 58 wins supra replacement, aliases conscionable nether 4 per season. In proportional terms, they contributed 171 percent much WAR from 26 to 40 than they’d accumulated done age-25. In different words, you’d expect Soto pinch his 36 wins supra replacement to beryllium worthy astir 62 WAR betwixt now and the extremity of his statement successful 2039.

In that case, the Mets would extremity up spending astir $12.3 cardinal per triumph supra replacement — hardly overmuch of an overpay based connected the existent marketplace for free agents.

Again, Mays was the champion here, being worthy 378 percent much WAR aft age-25 than before. Barry Bonds came successful astatine 367 percent more, while Cedeño, Vada Pinson and Andruw Jones knowledgeable the harshest drop-offs. (Trout, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado are each still playing, truthful they’re not portion of the sample past the property of 30.)

Of course, different players execute their worth successful different ways. Cedeño was a speedster tin of bashing 20 homers and stealing 50 bases while playing a Gold Glove halfway field. Jones was arsenic talented a defender astatine a premium position arsenic anyone successful his generation. Hank Aaron was a area outfielder who deed .300 and hammered 30-plus homers twelvemonth aft year.

The subordinate connected the database who mightiness look the astir for illustration Soto is Frank Robinson. Robinson posted 37.3 WAR done age-25 to Soto’s 36.4; his profession OPS was .946 to Soto’s .953. Soto’s OPS+ is simply a spot better, 160 to 146, and Robinson’s mitt successful an outfield area was stronger; he won a Gold Glove successful 1958.

Robinson averaged adjacent to 7 wins supra replacement from age-26 to age-30, and he averaged much than 5 wins supra replacement from age-26 done age-38. In all, he was worthy 70 WAR aft the property of 25. The Mets would jump astatine that sustained accumulation from Soto. (In franchise history, only Tom Seaver has compiled much than 50 wins supra replacement arsenic a Met, ending his profession pinch 76 WAR for New York.)

In general, scouts are bullish connected Soto’s bat aging well.

“Offensively, the accomplishment group will ever beryllium there,” 1 said. “Even if there’s a powerfulness drop-off, benignant of for illustration what happened pinch Joey Votto, the sheet subject will ever beryllium there. The expertise to deed will ever beryllium there.”

“At his best, he reminds maine of Bonds pinch what we for illustration to telephone ‘controlled aggression,’” said another. “He’s arsenic bully a hitter and arsenic bully astatine knowing what to do pinch definite pitches arsenic I’ve seen since Bonds.”

They are little judge astir Soto’s defense, noting it’s erstwhile and not if he’ll make a position change, and wondering if he tin make it to anyplace but DH.

“As agelong arsenic the assemblage holds up and keeps him successful the outfield successful immoderate capacity,” 1 scout said, “I americium judge he will beryllium good for a while.”

“I deliberation he’s a bad defender,” said another. “And successful correct field, that tin costs you. In the future, tin he play first base?”

“At his age, a batch depends connected really he widens out,” said a 3rd scout. “Does he support it together beautiful well?”

(Photo of Juan Soto getting a day cupcake from Ozzie Albies: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)