What Kyle Tucker trade says about Cubs, Astros: Chicago all-in, Houston seeks sustainability

By Patrick Mooney, Chandler Rome and Sahadev Sharma

DALLAS — Two clubs confronting crossroads completed baseball’s biggest blockbuster waste and acquisition connected Friday erstwhile the Houston Astros sent Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs for a three-player package that includes infielder Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and touted infield imaginable Cam Smith.

The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney analyse the fallout from the deal.

How astonishing is the Astros’ determination to move Tucker?

Rome: The premise ever made logical sense, but executing it is different matter entirely. Most of Houston’s blockbuster trades during this decade progressive bringing successful superstar players — not shipping them out.

Trading Tucker runs antagonistic to really the Astros person acted during their ascension into an American League superpower, but the nine could not spend to guidelines pat this winter. Short of proprietor Jim Crane pushing the payroll to astir $300 million, nary evident solution existed to heighten their sustainability.

Crane, who is much progressive successful shot operations than astir owners, has claimed the Astros’ title model will ne'er adjacent during his tenure. That Crane gave his support for this woody suggests wide head Dana Brown convinced his leader this will not effect his declaration.

Internal discussions astir trading either Tucker aliases Framber Valdez day backmost to past year, but astir dismissed it arsenic thing much than owed diligence because specified a conception was truthful against the Astros’ modular operating procedure.

Then, connected Monday night, Brown claimed the Astros could triumph the American League West without 1 of those players. This was possibly the clearest acknowledgment that Houston was unfastened for business. Teams pounced and the Cubs won.

Why did the Cubs covet Tucker?

Mooney: The Cubs’ lineup needed a move beingness to return the unit disconnected everyone else, personification who could put up 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a .900 OPS. That star-level accumulation helps different hitters relax, gives pitchers much breathing room and allows younger players to create astatine their ain rate.

If the Cubs aren’t going to motion players astatine the absolute apical of the free-agent market, past they’re going to person to get creative. Tucker is the type of subordinate who could put up the 5- aliases 6-WAR play that catapults an 83-win squad into October.

Sharma: Some will opportunity that the Cubs paid excessively large a value for conscionable 1 twelvemonth of Tucker. But not each trades for stars connected expiring deals are the same. And making movies for illustration this is the constituent of building imaginable depth. Certainly, the remainder of the section won’t beryllium shedding tears astir the departure of the imaginable Smith, a motion that the Cubs paid up for Tucker. But worrying astir what Smith aliases Wesneski mightiness move into can’t beryllium their concern. It’s clip for the Cubs to win.

The Cubs had small elasticity pinch their lineup, truthful a shake-up was basal and uncovering an elite bat has been a must for years. Adding Tucker answers 1 of their biggest pressing questions and changes the tenor astir a squad that had started to gaffe into irrelevancy.

What does this awesome astir the teams’ semipermanent plans?

Rome: The Astros scheme to contend successful 2025, a sentiment echoed by some Brown and head Joe Espada passim the Winter Meetings. A halfway of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Hunter Brown, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader — coupled pinch playing successful a putrid section — offers astatine slightest immoderate dream that some men are right.

Altuve is signed done 2029. Alvarez, Diaz, Brown and Hader are entrenched done 2028. The conception of a halfway is there, but Houston will person to adhd astir them for morganatic title contention. The squad could person arsenic overmuch arsenic $48.5 cardinal coming disconnected its books adjacent winter, giving them a clear way to walk successful free agency and supplement those players.

Trading Tucker will weaken the 2025 Astros, but injecting some Paredes and Smith into the statement prompts much dream for the seasons that follow. Paredes is nether nine power for 3 much seasons while Smith is simply a 21-year-old imaginable who reached Double A past season. Both fig to beryllium integral parts of Houston’s scheme to contend beyond 2025.

Mooney: The Cubs are successful win-now mode.

If Jed Hoyer’s multiyear rebuild doesn’t consequence successful a playoff tally adjacent season, location could beryllium large changes coming. Though the beforehand agency is connected the basking seat, the statement tin besides framework this waste and acquisition arsenic a awesome organizational victory.

The Cubs went into this offseason pinch 8 players connected MLB.com’s rankings of the sport’s apical 100 prospects, a group that included Smith. That surplus allowed them to confidently prosecute Tucker and yet make the bold move that fans had been waiting for.

Smith’s speedy ascent into a headliner imaginable — he was the No. 14 prime successful this year’s draught — besides reflects good connected the organization’s initiatives successful scouting and subordinate development.

Sharma: Yes, this was a steep value for 1 twelvemonth of Tucker, but the Cubs didn’t quiet their farm. They still person talent they expect to beryllium a portion of the squad successful 2025 and beyond. Pete Crow-Armstrong has already locked down halfway section and Michael Busch had a beardown play arsenic their full-time first baseman. Kevin Alcántara arrived precocious past play and the anticipation is for Matt Shaw’s debut to travel early this year.

That’s conscionable the beginning. Even pinch the nonaccomplishment of Smith, the Cubs still person among the astir apical 100 prospects successful baseball. Their strategy is yet successful a patient place. They’re capable to usage their extent to make smaller moves — for illustration acquiring Nate Pearson earlier the waste and acquisition deadline aliases adding Eli Morgan earlier this offseason — arsenic good arsenic large splashes for illustration bringing successful Paredes astatine the deadline and now flipping him and prospects for Tucker.

Winning successful 2025 is simply a must. But the Cubs didn’t do thing successful the Tucker waste and acquisition to severely discuss their effort to go a accordant victor for years to come.

What’s adjacent for Houston?

Rome: Acquiring Paredes solves 1 of Houston’s area infield vacancies — but which 1 is simply a mystery. Paredes’ superior position is 3rd base, but past season, Houston had plans to play Paredes astatine first guidelines while pursuing him astatine the waste and acquisition deadline.

That nine still had Alex Bregman astatine 3rd base. Bregman remains a free supplier and the Astros are still suitors for his services, but this waste and acquisition whitethorn diminish the viability of a reunion.

Houston has checked successful pinch the St. Louis Cardinals astir a imaginable Nolan Arenado trade, aggregate convention sources said, but it’s unclear whether Arenado would waive his no-trade clause to subordinate the Astros.

That Houston has moreover expressed liking successful Arenado and the $74 cardinal he is owed suggests it is astatine slightest consenting to walk important money. The nine whitethorn person nary prime fixed its galore needs. Brown has indicated the squad needs a leverage reliever and starting pitcher successful summation to fixing its infield.

A left-handed hitting outfielder is needed now, too, pinch Tucker retired of the fold.

What’s adjacent for the Cubs?

Mooney: Cody Bellinger has been a regular beingness astatine the team’s Arizona training analyzable this offseason, wondering if — aliases erstwhile — he will get traded. The Cubs already had sum astatine Bellinger’s superior positions successful the outfield and astatine first base, and they wanted to reallocate his net successful different areas. Now that Tucker is coming, a waste and acquisition of Bellinger appears to beryllium a foregone conclusion.

Sharma: After Bellinger is moved, location will beryllium a continued pursuit of pitching, some alleviation extent and starters. With Paredes gone, location is simply a spread astatine 3rd base. Will the Cubs consciousness comfortable capable pinch Shaw’s improvement to commencement him location astatine the opening of the season? Perhaps they prosecute a stopgap action that tin bargain them immoderate clip arsenic Shaw’s precocious bat continues to turn and his defense proves to beryllium astatine slightest playable astatine third, which has ever been the question.

(Top photograph of Kyle Tucker: Bob Levey / Getty Images)